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东谈西论

纵观天下，监测中国心跳，由《联合早报》副总编辑韩咏红主持的国际时事播客《东谈西论》，每周探讨国际热点话题，分析国际政治动态。
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12 Nov, 2024
全世界系好安全带 迎接特朗普的新美国 Trump’s triumph: Global implications
美国总统选举结果已经尘埃落定，前总统特朗普大胜，他不仅赢得所有摇摆州的选举人票，普选票也胜过对手哈里斯。 特朗普誓言带领美国进入黄金时代，弥合国家伤口。他在竞选期间公布的政策包括大规模驱逐移民，对中国商品加征关税至60%，对其他国家商品征税10%至20%，而且要欧洲盟友和台湾支付更多“保护费”。 评论人担忧，美国将走回历史上的孤立时代。这会对世界带来什么影响？中国又会如何迎接特朗普治下的“黄金美国”？ 这期的早报播客《东谈西论》，听主持人韩咏红与清华大学战略与安全研究中心主任、国际关系学系教授达巍解析特朗普再次当选美国总统对世界的影响。 延伸阅读： 吴汉钧：特朗普能否带领美国进入黄金时代？ 韩咏红：特朗普2.0给中国的危机与机遇 Donald Trump achieved a significant victory in the US election, securing not only the electoral votes of key swing states but also leading his opponent Kamala Harris in the popular vote. Trump vowed to lead America into a “golden age” while addressing national healing. His proposed policies include imposing a 60% tariff on imports from China and a 10% tariff on goods from other countries, alongside demands for increased financial contributions from U.S. allies in exchange for security guarantees. Concerns about a potential shift towards a more isolationist stance under Trump's leadership have been raised, particularly regarding how this might affect global alliances and relations with China. These developments prompt discussions about their implications for international security dynamics. In this episode of Global Heartbeat podcast, host Han Yonghong discusses these issues with Professor Da Wei, Director of the Centre for International Security and Strategy at Tsinghua University. Hosted by Lianhe Zaobao’s Associate Editor, Han Yong Hong, Global Heartbeat is a Mandarin weekly news and current affairs podcast that is updated every Tuesday, 7.00 PM SGT. It is available on zaobao.sg, Apple Podcast, Spotify and other podcast platforms.  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
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5 Nov, 2024
白宫之战：特朗普若再当选的另类观点 US Election 2024: Trump 2.0?
美国总统大选已进入投票日，全世界都在屏息以待选举结果。在投票日前三天，提前邮寄投票的选民已超过7500万。至今，现任副总统、民主党候选人哈里斯与前总统、共和党候选人特朗普的选情依然胶着，互不相让，选举进入割喉战。 两大阵营频出奇招，但也出现了猪队友自乱阵脚的情况。哈里斯引述他人言论，指责特朗普为法西斯分子；拜登则称特朗普的支持者为“垃圾”，引发巨大争议。 越来越多的民调显示，特朗普的胜选几率正在上升。中国的知识界怎么看待特朗普重返白宫的可能性？ 这期的早报播客《东谈西论》，听主持人韩咏红与中国复旦大学教授沈丁立深入解析特朗普如果再次当选，是会更加可怕，还是可能带来转机？ 延伸阅读： 美国总统大选前夕 中国学者预期特朗普赢面更大 杨丹旭：美国大选，世界在等 As the world watches with bated breath, the race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump is proving to be one of the most closely contested in recent history. With more than 75 million mail-in votes already cast, the election has entered a critical phase. Both campaigns have resorted to aggressive tactics, sometimes backfiring spectacularly. Adding to the tension, several polls suggest Trump might have an edge, raising questions about what a second Trump presidency would mean for America and the world. In China, intellectuals are closely analysing the potential implications of a Trump return. Would it be a global disaster, or could there be unexpected upsides? In the latest episode of Global Heartbeat, Professor Shen Dingli of Fudan University provides expert insights into the impact of the election outcome on international politics. Hosted by Lianhe Zaobao’s Associate Editor, Han Yong Hong, Global Heartbeat is a Mandarin weekly news and current affairs podcast that is updated every Tuesday, 7.00 PM SGT. It is available on zaobao.sg, Apple Podcast, Spotify and other podcast platforms.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
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29 Oct, 2024
哈里斯选情告急 特朗普尾市看涨 US Election 2024: A nail-biting finish
美国民主党总统候选人哈里斯的选情告急。 在刚过去的周末，前总统奥巴马夫人米歇尔亲自下场到关键摇摆州密歇根州，为哈里斯站台助选。米歇尔充满爆发力的演讲让全场气氛燃爆。 另一方面，特朗普在纽约市举行了大型造势晚会，现场挤得水泄不通，有的支持者还连夜在会场外扎营。特朗普在致辞时，呼吁支持者将哈里斯赶出白宫。 距离投票日只剩下一个星期，两位候选人哈里斯和特朗普的选情依然高度胶着。但多份最新民调显示，特朗普的当选几率正在赶超哈里斯。 这期的早报播客《东谈西论》，听主持人韩咏红与美国德州山姆休士顿州立大学政治系副教授翁履中解析特朗普真的要回来了吗？他会给美国和世界带来什么？在如此激烈的选举后，美国能否实现政权的和平交接？ 延伸阅读： 国际特稿：经济课题主导美国选情 选民手中一票投给三餐温饱 韩咏红：美国总统大选是什么在摇摆？ The US presidential election is down to the wire, with Donald Trump and Kamala Harris locked in a tight race.  As the clock ticks down to Election Day, both candidates are pulling out all the stops.  Former First Lady Michelle Obama energised Harris supporters in the crucial swing state of Michigan with a rousing speech. Simultaneously, Trump held a massive rally in New York City, demonstrating the enduring fervour of his base. While some recent polls suggest a potential surge for Trump, the race remains too close to call. Amidst this heated political climate, concerns are mounting over whether the US can ensure a peaceful transition of power following the election. This election carries significant weight, raising crucial questions about the future direction of the US and its role on the global stage. The stakes are high, and the world is watching as the US heads towards a potentially historic election.   In this episode of Global Heartbeat podcast, Dr. Dennis Lu-Chung Weng, Associate Professor of Political Science at Sam Houston State University, shares his analysis and insights.  Hosted by Lianhe Zaobao’s Associate Editor, Han Yong Hong, Global Heartbeat is a Mandarin weekly news and current affairs podcast that is updated every Tuesday, 7.00 PM SGT. It is available on zaobao.sg, Apple Podcast, Spotify and other podcast platforms.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
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22 Oct, 2024
朝鲜参战乌克兰，想干嘛？North Korean troops in Ukraine
韩国情报部门上周公布情报称，朝鲜已经决定向乌克兰战场派遣包括特种部队在内的12,000名兵力，参与俄罗斯与乌克兰的战争。 韩国国情院称，今年8月，首批1,500多名朝鲜特种部队已被送往俄罗斯的符拉迪沃斯托克，也就是中国所称的海参崴。 另一方面，乌克兰总统泽连斯基上周告诉媒体，根据他们的情报，朝鲜已经派遣技术人员和军官前往乌克兰被分裂的地区。他也表示，朝鲜准备派遣1万名兵力到战场，这相当于第二个国家正式加入了对乌克兰的战争。自从乌克兰战争爆发以来，朝鲜一直向俄罗斯提供炮弹、导弹和其他武器援助，但尚未大规模派遣军队参战。 朝鲜这次真的准备派兵到前线了吗？如果属实，朝鲜的意图和目的是什么？ 这期的早报播客《东谈西论》，听主持人韩咏红与《联合早报》驻北京的记者于泽远详细解析朝鲜的加入将如何影响俄乌战争的局势，乃至东北亚的和平。 Reports of North Korea's potential involvement in the Ukraine war have sent ripples through the international community. South Korean intelligence claims Pyongyang is preparing to send up to 12,000 troops, including special forces, to aid Russia. This claim, while unverified, alleges that an initial contingent of over 1,500 soldiers has already arrived in Vladivostok. The situation has raised alarms, with Ukrainian President Zelensky concerned about another nation entering the fray. The emergence of unverified videos purportedly showing North Korean soldiers receiving equipment from Russian troops has further fueled speculation.  This development raises critical questions about North Korea's motivations and strategic intentions. The potential consequences of North Korean involvement are far-reaching. It could escalate the conflict, destabilise the region, and exacerbate existing geopolitical tensions, especially in Northeast Asia. In this episode of Global Heartbeat podcast, join host Han Yonghong and Lianhe Zaobao's China News Copy Editor Yu Zeyuan as they explore the potential implications of North Korea’s military involvement in the Russia-Ukraine war. Hosted by Lianhe Zaobao’s Associate Editor, Han Yong Hong, Global Heartbeat is a Mandarin weekly news and current affairs podcast that is updated every Tuesday, 7.00 PM SGT. It is available on zaobao.sg, Apple Podcast, Spotify and other podcast platforms.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
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15 Oct, 2024
以色列七线开火 内坦亚胡是赢家？Israel’s multifront war: Netanyahu winning or losing?
以色列与哈马斯冲突爆发一周年， 加沙地带的暴力冲突仍未消停，以色列的北方邻国黎巴嫩也卷入了战火。  根据联合国的评估，在一个月内，以色列的攻击已经造成黎巴嫩北部2000人死亡，超过百万人流离失所。 美国、法国以及黎巴嫩的看守政府一直在努力促成停火协议，但都徒劳无功。 以色列总理内坦亚胡在10月6日宣称，以色列目前正同时在七条战线上作战。这些战线涉及不同地点或对象，分别是：加沙的哈马斯、黎巴嫩的真主党、也门的胡塞武装、叙利亚、伊拉克，约旦河西岸的抵抗组织，以及伊朗。 多线作战让以色列国内也遭受攻击，但以色列的军事行动为何仍在继续？国际社会，包括多个大国，都拿以色列没办法。 这期的早报播客《东谈西论》，听主持人韩咏红和中国著名国际战略专家、中国人民大学国际关系学院退休教授时殷弘详细解析中东战火持续，遭到多国谴责的内坦亚胡到底是赢了，还是输了？ 延伸阅读： 陈留俊：以色列的“十月冒险”？ 【东谈西论】中东战争扩大 倒计时开始？ One year after the October 7 attacks, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that his country is now fighting on seven fronts. He listed the battlegrounds as Iran, Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, Shia militants in Iraq, militant groups in Syria as well as Palestinian fighters in the West Bank.  Despite international efforts to broker a ceasefire, a resolution remains elusive. This multi-pronged approach, while presented as necessary by Netanyahu, has drawn international criticism and raised questions about its long-term effectiveness. Is Netanyahu's strategy a calculated gamble for security, or a dangerous escalation that could spiral out of control?   In this episode of Global Heartbeat podcast, join host Han Yong Hong and Shi Yinhong, a professor of international relations at Renmin University of China, as they discuss the complex dynamics of Middle Eastern geopolitics as well as the implications of Netanyahu's military and political manoeuvres. Hosted by Lianhe Zaobao’s Associate Editor, Han Yong Hong, Global Heartbeat is a Mandarin weekly news and current affairs podcast that is updated every Tuesday, 7.00 PM SGT. It is available on zaobao.sg, Apple Podcast, Spotify and other podcast platforms.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
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8 Oct, 2024
中东战争扩大 倒计时开始？Wider Middle East war inevitable?
在以色列2023年10月7日遭哈马斯突袭一周年的前夕，以色列在刚过去的周末扩大了对黎巴嫩首都贝鲁特南部的攻势。 战火给处于经济崩溃状态的黎巴嫩人民带来了更大的痛苦。超过100万人流离失所，逃离家园。过去一年间，以色列除了在加沙地带发动持续性的猛烈攻击，也打击了中东地区的敌对力量。这包括以色列在今年7月暗杀了前往伊朗出席新总统就职仪式的哈马斯领导人哈尼亚，9月又通过传呼机和对讲机爆炸袭击，造成数十名黎巴嫩真主党人死亡，数千人受伤。随后，以色列使用了八十余枚钻地弹，炸死了真主党最高领导纳斯鲁拉，并随后对黎巴嫩发起了地面进攻。 伊朗也展开了报复行动。上个星期二，伊朗向以色列发射了180多枚导弹，击中了两座以色列空军基地。 如今，中东地区多处战火纷飞，以色列在多线作战，它的最终目标是什么？它会攻击伊朗的核设施吗？ 这期的早报播客《东谈西论》，听主持人韩咏红和台湾中兴大学国际政治研究所所长崔進揆解析中东战争全面扩大的倒计时是否已经开始？ 延伸阅读： 国际特稿：以哈战火延绵中东 一年灰烬覆盖和平 社论：以色列多线开火 中东和局无解 Tensions in the Middle East are reaching a boiling point as Israel marks the first anniversary of the October 7 Hamas attack. Over the past year, Israel has intensified its military actions in Gaza and Lebanon, further straining the already dire humanitarian situation. With more than a million people displaced in Lebanon, the region faces mounting challenges. Speculation is rife about Israel's intentions, particularly concerning Iran's nuclear facilities, raising questions about the potential for a broader conflict.  In this episode of Global Heartbeat podcast, join host Han Yong Hong and guest Chin-Kuei Tsui, Associate Professor at Graduate Institute of International Politics (GIIP), National Chung Hsing University, as they analyse the escalating Middle East crisis.   Hosted by Lianhe Zaobao’s Associate Editor, Han Yong Hong, Global Heartbeat is a Mandarin weekly news and current affairs podcast that is updated every Tuesday, 7.00 PM SGT. It is available on zaobao.sg, Apple Podcast, Spotify and other podcast platforms.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
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1 Oct, 2024
中国终于扣动救市扳机 China’s bold stimulus package
中国三大金融监管机构上星期二突然联合召开记者会，公布了一系列救市措施，包括降准、降息、下调房地产贷款利率、将房贷首付比率下降至15%。这等于向市场释放1万亿元人民币的流动性。 中国央行行长潘功胜在记者会上还宣布，将推出两项政策工具来释放流动性并提振股市。这两项政策工具共计会对市场释放8000亿人民币，而且还只是首期。中国股市、香港股市应声大涨，并带动亚太和欧洲股市上扬。 到了星期四，中共中央政治局再开会部署经济工作，要求保证必要的财政支出、实施有力度的降息、促进房地产市场止跌回稳。国际投资者为之振奋，著名对冲基金经理 David Tepper公开表示他已全面加仓。 在冠病疫情结束后，中国经济并没有出现预期的报复性反弹，反而面临越来越大的挑战。尽管经济学家一直在呼吁中国政府采取更为有力的救市措施，但当局的行动被形容为“挤牙膏”。这一次，中国政府终于启动了大规模救市的扳机吗？这是否算是大水漫灌？ 这期的早报播客《东谈西论》，听主持人韩咏红和新加坡华侨银行亚洲地区研究与策略主管谢栋铭解析中国推出的新一轮政策将会对中国经济产生什么影响？ 延伸阅读： 杨丹旭：中国央行放大招能否力挽狂澜？ 陈婧：楼市终于要止跌了？ China has surprised markets with a series of aggressive monetary easing measures aimed at reviving its flagging economy.  The country's central bank announced a cut to the reserve requirement ratio for banks, injecting billions into the financial system.  Additionally, lending and mortgage interest rates will be lowered, and further stimulus measures are on the horizon.  This comes after China's post-pandemic recovery fell short of expectations, prompting calls for more decisive government action. The announcements led to significant gains in China's stock market, which also positively impacted the Hong Kong, Asia-Pacific, and European markets.  While some investors are expressing renewed confidence, the long-term impact of these measures remains to be seen.  In this episode of Global Heartbeat podcast, join host Han Yong Hong and guest Tommy Xie, Head of Greater China Research & Strategy at OCBC Bank, as they analyse these developments and discuss whether China has finally pulled the trigger on a large-scale economic rescue plan.   Hosted by Lianhe Zaobao’s Associate Editor, Han Yong Hong, Global Heartbeat is a Mandarin weekly news and current affairs podcast that is updated every Tuesday, 7.00 PM SGT. It is available on zaobao.sg, Apple Podcast, Spotify and other podcast platforms.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
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24 Sep, 2024
马国全球兄弟丑闻：宗教与商业的模糊边界 Malaysia child abuse scandal
马来西亚一家具规模的跨国商业机构“全球兄弟服务与商业控股”（简称全球兄弟）9月爆出惊人丑闻。 截至9月下旬，警方从全球兄弟下辖的儿童福利院救出了大约600名少年儿童。这些少年儿童相信都是全球兄弟成员的子女。他们被强迫劳动、性侵害、虐待，也在精神上被洗脑与控制。 全球兄弟的资产约3亿2500万令吉（约9976万新元），业务遍布亚洲以及欧洲。它到底是一家怎么样的企业？是不是邪教？为什么能长期犯罪而不被揭发？过去二三十年里，马来西亚社会日益宗教化与保守化。全球兄弟爆出的这场丑闻，应该引起怎样的注意？ 这期的早报播客《东谈西论》，听主持人韩咏红和《联合早报》吉隆坡特派员萧郡瑜及《联合早报》国际新闻组第二主任吴汉钧解析轰动马来西亚的全球兄弟性侵虐童案。 延伸阅读： 回教福利院数百儿童证实被虐 马国元首促警彻查 马回教局将研究“全球兄弟”是否为异端 In September, Malaysia's Global Ikhwan Services and Business (GISB) Holdings was thrust into the spotlight following a shocking scandal involving the abuse of children in their welfare homes. Malaysian police have rescued hundreds of children who were subjected to forced labor, sexual abuse, and physical mistreatment.  Established in 2010, GISB is a Muslim conglomerate that has assets totalling around RM325 million (S$99.8 million) with operations spanning Asia and Europe. The company has been linked to the now-defunct Malaysia-based Al-Arqam religious sect, which was banned by the Malaysian government in 1994. The scandal has exposed systemic failures in child welfare oversight and highlighted the impact of societal norms that allowed such abuses to go unchecked for years.  In this episode of Global Heartbeat, host Han Yonghong is joined by Lianhe Zaobao’s Second Foreign Editor, Ng Hon Kuan and Kuala Lumpur correspondent Seoow Juin Yee. They delve into the details of the scandal, and discuss its broader implications in Malaysia. Hosted by Lianhe Zaobao’s Associate Editor, Han Yong Hong, Global Heartbeat is a Mandarin weekly news and current affairs podcast that is updated every Tuesday, 7.00 PM SGT. It is available on zaobao.sg, Apple Podcast, Spotify and other podcast platforms.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
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17 Sep, 2024
恒大账务造假 普华永道是共犯还是被拖累？PwC's Evergrande scandal in China
世界四大会计事务所之一、总部设在英国的普华永道（PricewaterhouseCoopers, PwC），因替中国房地产巨头恒大集团出具虚假审计报告，被中国财政部罚款人民币4.41亿元（8070万新元），并处以停业六个月的处罚，同时撤销了普华永道广州分所的执业资格。 普华永道因对恒大集团的虚假账目“睁一只眼、闭一只眼” 而陷入危机。而在香港上市的恒大集团今年1月已被下令清盘，留下超过3000亿美元的债务、上百万套烂尾楼，以及数十亿美元的财富管理产品违约。 恒大账目造假，普华永道作为审计机构应承担多少责任？这背后是否存在利益输送？ 这期的早报播客《东谈西论》，听主持人韩咏红和新加坡管理大学李光前商学院副教授傅方剑解析这个事件暴露了上市公司与会计行业之间哪些深层次问题？ 延伸阅读： 中国财政部点名瑞幸恒大：财务造假成本过低 新会计法大幅提高处罚力度 普华永道被香港监管机构调查 Chinese regulators hit the auditing unit of PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) in mainland China with a six-month business suspension and a record fine of 441 million yuan (S$81 million) over the firm’s audit of troubled property developer China Evergrande Group, which was ordered to liquidate earlier this year. The Big Four accounting firm is accused of failing to uncover accounting irregularities at the real estate giant, raising serious questions about auditing practices in China. In this episode of Global Heartbeat podcast, join host Han Yong Hong and Associate Professor of Finance from the Singapore Management University’s Lee Kong Chian School of Business, Fu Fangjian, as they delve into the broader implications of this incident for the auditing industry, financial accountability, and corporate governance in China.  Hosted by Lianhe Zaobao’s Associate Editor, Han Yong Hong, Global Heartbeat is a Mandarin weekly news and current affairs podcast that is updated every Tuesday, 7.00 PM SGT. It is available on zaobao.sg, Apple Podcast, Spotify and other podcast platforms.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
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10 Sep, 2024
中国国足成不了佳话 变成了笑话 China's football: From aspirations to mockery
中国国家男子足球队上周四在客场对阵日本，以0比7惨败。这场比赛不仅创下了国足在国际正式比赛中的最大比分差距，还刷新了世界杯预选赛的历史分差纪录。虽然过去26年里，中国队从未战胜过日本队，但这次的惨败尤其让球迷倍感震惊。 中国拥有14亿人口，还有庞大的足球迷群体，但男子足球的表现为何屡屡让人失望？网络上的嘲讽与调侃层出不穷。赢不了球的中国男足，难道真的成了大众的笑柄？ 更有意思的是，中央电视台并未转播这场比赛。这背后究竟是单纯的经济原因、认为版权费太高，还是另有其他政治考量？ 这期的早报播客《东谈西论》，听主持人韩咏红与《联合早报》驻北京的记者于泽远详细解析这场比赛背后的舆论风波。 延伸阅读： 于泽远：中国国足输出了喜感 张田勘：0比7是一个苦涩的参照数字 Chinese football fans are reeling after their national team suffered a record-breaking 7-0 defeat against arch-rivals Japan in a crucial World Cup qualifier. The match was China’s worst defeat in the team’s history as well as the biggest goal difference in World Cup qualifying history. It has sparked outrage and despair across the nation. This crushing defeat goes beyond a sporting disappointment; it touches upon national pride and reignites long-standing frustrations regarding China's struggle to establish itself as a football powerhouse. What does this loss mean for the future of Chinese football?  In this episode of Global Heartbeat, host Han Yonghong and Lianhe Zaobao’s China News Copy Editor Yu Zeyuan examine the state of Chinese men's football. Hosted by Lianhe Zaobao’s Associate Editor, Han Yong Hong, Global Heartbeat is a Mandarin weekly news and current affairs podcast that is updated every Tuesday, 7.00 PM SGT. It is available on zaobao.sg, Apple Podcast, Spotify and other podcast platforms.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
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